Saturday, September 25, 2010

Braves Wild?

Hello Atlanta faithful, after a nauseating loss to the Nationals last night the Bravo's are now a half game back of the surging Padres in the NL Wild Card race. It's do or die time in Bobby Cox's final season. They need to catch fire down the stretch, and pressure the Padres or Giants the rest of the way if they want a shot at the playoffs.

So to take our minds off the fact that the Braves are out of a playoff spot for the first time in months lets take a position-by-position look at the Braves needs for the 2011 season.

Catcher-
This is not a position of concern with Brian McCann and David Ross firmly entrenched behind the plate for at least the next two seasons. McCann is of course an elite offensive catcher with solid skills behind the plate who had worked hard to improve his ability to throw out runners. Ross is an exceptional defender with plenty of assets a hitter who should see plenty of at-bats against left handed pitchers.

First Base-
It appears that the Braves brass are intent on giving Freddy Freeman the job at first, Freeman is a good defender who has had potential to be a very good hitter. Troy Glaus and Derek Lee are likely done in Atlanta after the season, Glaus is likely headed for an American League job that would allow him to DH often. Lee will want a starting job and not the platoon that the Braves could offer, and as a player who has been a standout as recently as last season it's perfectly understandable. For his transition to the majors it would probably be prudent to get a veteran to back up at first and preferably be a right handed hitter.

One guy on the free-agent market who is appealing is Jorge Cantu, he plays first and third base competently and is a proven RBI man. If the price is right he could be a good option. Another name worth mentioning is Jose Lopez he's coming off a down year, but so are most people on the Seattle roster. If his option is declined he would probably welcome a change of scenery, and would likely benefit from it. His power numbers would likely be better away from the vast Safeco field and he plays first, second and third base which could also be an asset. Eric Hinske has a decent chance of returning if the Braves decide that they need him to back up at first and left, and to help maintain their positive club house environment.

Second Base-
Martin Prado will be starting at second base once again, unless Chipper Jones doesn't return from his ACL injury. Prado is going to be a fixture in the lineup for at least a few more years and if he is forced to third Omar Infante's option will probably be picked up allowing him to either play second or back up everywhere again. The forgotten man in the equation is Brooks Conrad, the Raw Dog has been clutch for the Bravo's this season and has played good defense at second at third. His chance of being back next year may depend on whether or not Chipper Jones returns or if they hire a full time option to replace him if he doesn't.

Third Base-
A question mark for the first time since 1994, the question is: Will Chipper Jones return? if he does the starting job is his to lose and he will be spelled occasionally by the Prado/Infante trust. Acquiring one of the players mentioned as backup options at first base would also provide insurance for Jones without breaking the bank.

Shortstop-
There is a very good chance that Alex Gonzalez's option is employed and he stays in Atlanta at least one more year.The Braves don't have a Minor League shortstop that is Major League ready, and the free agent crop is very thin. I don't see them making a change unless Fran Wren makes a surprise trade.

Outfield-
This is where Mr.Wren will earn his money in the off season, Jason Heyward is the only sure thing. Nate McLouth will most probably be back because he has show some signs of life recently, and his contract is immovable because of his play this year. Rick Ankiel's option will be bought out, there is almost no chance he returns.  Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrerra are both non-tender candidates. It's the opinion of a few insiders that Bobby Cox is the only reason that Matt Diaz is still on the team, and that with a new manager he's going to be looking for a new job. Somehow the Braves seem likely to convince themselves to keep Melky Cabrerra much to the disdain of the fans. He is a switch hitter, but isn't a standout on either side of the plate, and can play all three outfield spots though none particularly well. The Braves don't have an outfielder that is ready in the pipeline, so the free-agent pool would seem a logical place for them to look.

Carl Crawford and Jason Werth are the clear cut first tier in free-agents, but while the Braves are likely to offer both of them deals it isn't expected that they will have a real shot at either one. The next tier of outfielders reads like this, Manny Ramierez,David DeJesus, Jason Kubel, Jose Guillen, Brad Hawpe, Andrew Jones, Magglio Ordonez, Xavier Nady, Coco Crisp, Scott Podsednik, Bill Hall, and Johnny Gomes. With DeJesus, Kubel, Ordonez, Crisp, Podsednik, and Hall all having options respectively. Those of Ordonez and Hall will almost certainly be declined the others may not be. Out of this group Frank Wren may sign one perpaps as a platoon option for Nate McLouth in left if they acquire a center fielder.

Out of this group Andrew Jones remains an intriguing name he's still a plus defender that the corner outfield positions and has shown the desire to play at a high level again. Nady and Hawpe could probably be gotten cheap and can also play first, but don't expect them on the team if Hinske is still around.

The only other means of acquisition left are to trade for a player and it seems like that is going to have to be the answer. There are a number of good outfielders that could probably be obtained Matt Kemp and Coby Rasmus have reportedly drawn some ire in their clubhouses and they may be available. It seems to be the consensus that if Kemp were to be away from Hollywood that it would benefit him greatly. Rasmus has denied asking for a trade, but any rumor that persistent has to have bearings somewhere. The Russel County product has a brother in the Braves organization and would presumably prefer to be near home.

Other options that might could be had are Luke Scott and Adam Jones of the Orioles Jones is a plus defender with a little pop, but doesn't bring much else to the table. Scott is a very similar hitter to Hinske and plays all the some positions, though he probably hits for a little more power.

Rajai Davis is another name that is intriguing depending on the cost, but the Braves have rarely been a speed team so they may not be interested. Juan Rivera was targeted by the Braves in the last off season and became an odd man out in the Angels outfield this season, the only issue is that he is owed 5 million dollars that they may not have, or want to pay for a relative gamble.

Fred Lewis is looking for a full time job this off season, and could help the Braves, but they may not want another player with a skill set near identical to McLouth.

The most likely scenario is that they end up trading for Adam Jones, and they have a great outfield defense that lacks punch yet again.

Starting Pitching-
The Braves starting staff is a solid top five staff, with Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, Lowe, and the rookies Minor and Beachy they are looking pretty tough for next season. They also have Julio Tehran, Arodys Viscaino, Randall Delgado, and Zeke Spurill in the minors who could all be viable starting options in the next two seasons. Also in the mix is Kenshin Kawakami who's name often triggers gag reflexes in Atlanta. They don't have to make a move to improve the staff but chances are they will move one of these guys listed to try and get an outfield bat.

Hanson is going to be an ace one day, so he is safe. As is Hudson who is having, apart from a few recent starts, a stellar year. Lowe is probably safe because he's a number 3-4 pitcher making 15 million dollars a year for they next two. Frank Wren is going to do everything in his power short of trading for Milton Bradley to trade Kawakami in the off season, there aren't too many obvious fits, but the Brewers, Indians, Pirates, Mariners, and Astros are all in need of multiple starters so they may find a fit, just don't expect to get much of a return with out eating massive money. The sad part is on most of those teams he's a number 3 starter.

So that leaves us with Jair Jurrgens, JJ is coming off an up and down season where he has battled injuries, including a recent meniscus tear. That isn't a long term concern because the operation is very easy. He seems to be the only appealing trade option that the Braves would seem inclined to move. He's not a free agent until 2014, and has proven to be very productive when healthy. According to an insider Jurrgens for Adam Jones/Matt Kemp swap could easily happen this off season.

Minor and Beachy could also be featured in deals but one of them is going to be on the opening day roster

The Braves don't figure to bring in any starting pitching unless they trade two of their current starters. Most likely they find a place to dump KK and trade Jurrgens for a viable outfield option.

Relief Pitching-
Another high point for the Braves this season, even without Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito the main acquisitions from last season the bullpen still figures to be very solid. Rookie Jonny Venters has been dominant for the majority of the year, and will battle righty Craig Kimbrell for the closer job. It seems very unlikely an outside closer option would be pursued.

Peter Moylan, Eric O'Flarety, and Mike Dunn all figure to feature prominent spots in a solid pen. Christian Martienez could be brought back as a long man if Kawakami is dealt or stays in the rotation. Kyle Farnswoth's option is a bit too high to justify, but if he could be brought back cheap the Braves may look to do just that. Frank Wren has said he would be looking for a veteran relief pitcher and because of the three left handers already in the pen it would make sense that it should be a righty.

John Rauch and Kerry Wood certainly fit that bill but will probably want more money than the Braves want to spend. Grant Balfour, Joaquin Beniot, Jesse Crain, Juan Cruz, Scott Shields and Dan Wheeler all fit the profile, though the Braves brass is know to draw wild cards in the bull pen so who knows.


So to grasp at any sort of conclusion here is what the Braves opening day lineup could possibly look like,

1.Prado 2b
2. Mclouth Lf
3.C.Jones 3b
4.Heyward Rf
5.McCann C
6. Adam Jones Cf
7.Freeman 1b
8.Gonzalez SS
9.P

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