Sunday, December 11, 2011

Braves Acquire Hanley Ramirez

Before you go jumping up and down in joy or disdain, or start cursing at your computer screen read this disclaimer:This has not happened and is not likely to happen any time soon.


For those of you unfamiliar with Ramirez, he may be the most physically gifted player to every play in south Florida. He has been the Marlins shortstop since 2006 and is a three time all-star and former Rookie of the Year. He hits for power, average, and can steal bases(.306/.380/.506 career line with  216 stolen bases). His main problem is, he's a little below average defensively for a shortstop, and when the newly dubbed Miami Marlins signed his World Baseball Classic teammate Jose Reyes to a six year 106 million dollar deal he was no longer the best shortstop on his own team. This was until this past season his team, until his lackluster and off-injured 2011 campaign he had led the Fish in every major offensive category(including attitude) for the past four years.

This didn't sit well with Hanley, though he professed to be okay with a Reyes signing he wasn't okay with moving off of shortstop. Maybe he thought that new manager Ozzie Guillen would put Reyes at second base if they signed him, though that would be a terrible idea for all involved for several reasons. Maybe Guillen and GM Jeffery Loria expected their star player to be mature and move over to third or even center field to make room for his countryman. If they did it's hard to see why, he has a history of attitude problems and when he was benched in the 2009 baseball classic so that Reyes could start it didn't sit well at all with him. It was even more raw for Hanley as he played poorly when he did get an opportunity(although Reyes played at least as badly) and the Dominicans were beaten twice by a vastly inferior Netherlands team.

He also has problems with coaches and  teammates most notably current Braves skipper Freddi Gonzalez and second baseman Dan Uggla. Gonzalez was shown the door shortly after benching the Marlins star for lackadaisical play, and he clashed with Uggla constantly when they were teammates. It is widely speculated that the Marlins failed to extend Uggla because he refused to have a contract of lesser value to Ramirez's. 

After reading all this you may be thinking,"okay, I understand why he might be available, but why would you think he would ever be a Brave?"

This is why; he has been starting shortstop for the Marlins. Therefore he is fated to play for the Braves at some point in his career.

I won't deny it, this is a ridiculous statement and I should be laughed off the web for suggesting it. Until you see the facts.

The Florida Marlins played their first season in 1993 as an expansion team along with the Colorado Rockies, in that time they have had five primary starting shortstops.

In their introductory season it was premier glove man Walt Weiss, a product of the Oakland A's system and 1988 Rookie of the Year. Walt came to the Fish in a trade for a couple of players you've never heard of and had a fairly good season by his standards(.266/.367/.308) and was let walk as a free agent at the end of the season.

Walt would sign with the Braves to take over at short for the newly departed Jeff Blauser before the 1998 season, and had three quite good yet injury plagued season with the Bravos. Included in his time was his lone all-star appearance in 1998. He finished his career in Atlanta and is generally fondly remembered here, mostly as the guy who played short before Raphael Furcal.

Next on the list is Kurt Abbot, the primary shortstop for the Marlins between 1994 and 1996 and a few games there in 1997. He had his moments, but was largely unspectacular and was traded to the A's as soon as the Fish had another warm body to throw into the middle of their infield.

Braves fans everywhere are scratching their head right now,"Kurt Abbot? We never had him did we?"

Yeah we did, but if you blinked at all in the summer of 2001 you probably missed his entire Braves career. He played six games, staring one and at second base and would never play in the big leagues again.

The aforementioned warm body was non other than the talented Edgar Renteria, he hit his was into the lineup in late 1996 and kept a hold on the starting spot until he was traded to the Cardinals for Alfredo Amanza, Braden Looper, and Pablo Ozuna in the great fire sale 1998 of . None of whom worked out very well for the Marlins.

He came to Atlanta in in 2005 for minor league journeyman in training Andy Marte and had two very good seasons in Atlanta including what is in all likelihood his final all-star appearance in 2006. Unlike the two previous players mentioned he didn't finish his career with the Braves, but he might as well have as he has been largely unproductive since.

His successor for the fish was none other than the illustrious Alex Gonzalez, one of the finest defensive shortstops in the past decade. Unfortunately he doesn't know that if you take four balls they let you go to first for free. He played in Miami until he was signed as a free agent by the Red Sox before the 2006 season. Ironically enough this was shortly after they traded Renteria to Atlanta.

The Braves picked him up during a career year in an exchange for  the "clubhouse cancer"Yunel Escobar and Jojo Reyes,  included with Sea Bass were minor leaugers Tim Collins and 2012 possible starting shortstop Tyler Pastornicky. As we all know he played great defense didn't hit a lick and was loved by pitchers almost as much as he was hated by the fans watching his at bats.

He has now signed with the Brewers on a one year deal with a vesting option.

So the only question left is, when will the Braves get Hanley? Will it be in a trade in the next few years? Will it be as a free agent in the twilight of his career? Or will he be the first Marlin to break the cycle?

Perhaps just one more question to ask, if the Braves ever do get Ramirez, will they end up getting Reyes at some point as well?

Stats were provided by fangraphs.com and baseballreference.com.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Shortstop, a shortstop, my kingdom for a shortstop!

You could just about buy a reasonably sized kingdom for the cash you would expect to pay for the price of the top free agent shortstops this season, and in the opinion of many a feudal era castle might be a safer investment. With a castle all you have to worry about is the decay of ages, moat maintenance and the uprising of the peasants.

Sign Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins and you have to worry about them staying something close to healthy, along with the decay of ages and the uprising of the peasants(and bloggers) when they inevitably get injured.

One look at the free agents and the Braves monetary situation and it will leave you thinking, "there is no way that the Braves will have a shortstop in 2012". And it is true that the lack of great options up the middle has driven up prices so much that Jamey Carroll, a career utility man who will be 38 at the start of next season, to a two year deal worth at least 6.5 million dollars to be their everyday shortstop. It's a sellers market even if the product isn't fantastic. Heck even a 37 year old John McDonald, an all glove career backup with a career OPS of .601 got a two year/3 million deal.

So that begs the question, "Who will play shortstop for the Braves in 2012?"

Well, lets take a look at the options.

In house there is really only one guy, his name is Tyler Pastornicky and in all likelyhood he will be a starting middle infielder in the near future. He preformed very well between AA and AAA in 2011 and will only be 22 at the start of next season. His slash line in 2011 was .314/.359/.414 and stole 27 bases and played SS in a manner that most scouts have described as above average. So what's the problem you say? Frank Wren gave the impression in a recent interview that he didn't think he was ready to start the season as the Braves starting shortstop. Maybe in 2013 he will get a shot, because he's doing all he can to earn one.

So we move on to the free agents and lets face it's not pretty.

As I mentioned above Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are the top of this class, but don't expect the Braves to make a play for either one. The massive amount of money and stupid long contracts these guys will get would drive them out of the Braves radar alone. Throw in the fact that you need a MASH unit to keep up with all of their injuries and you have two very talented guys that will likely never play in Atlanta.

So moving on, the next group is really about a tier or two below the aforementioned but they still have value. That class is headlined by Yuniesky Betancourt, Raphael Furcal, Clint Barmes, Alex Gonzalez and Ronnie Cedeno. Are you bored yet? You should be. The Braves will not even extend and offer to Betancourt if they have done their homework, and after the debacle with Furcal a few years back, coupled with the fact that he is reported to be asking for two years and 16 million you can forget about him too.

 The other three guys, aren't atrocious options in a way, we know what were getting in Gonzalez a great glove and little else. However if he's willing to come back on a one year deal worth less than 4 million, it's easy to envision him manning short and hitting far too high in the batting order for the Braves for one more year. In a world where Jamey Carroll get's two years, there may be a team willing to give Sea Bass a two year deal, in which case you can kiss him good bye Braves fans. Barmes is a pretty good option with a glove comparable to Gonzalez. You get a bit more with the bat, but with the market being a bit high for middle infielders this year he may have priced himself out of Atlanta's range. That is to say they could pay him what he want's, but in the interest of sticking to their long term plan they probably wont. Cedeno is an interesting option, okay not interesting but not the worst either. He's a competent infielder at  SS, 2B, and 3B and is basically an equal to Gonzalez with the bat with a better OBP but no power to speak of. The deal with Cedeno is, if you sign him to a two year deal for 3.5 million or less he can also be a decent backup at several positions if Pastornicky proves that he is ready at some point in the next two years. Are they good options, no, but they might be the best available.

The other guys; The best and brightest of the bottom of the barrel.

These guys are the left overs, the ones that shouldn't be everyday players for a team that hopes to content. Heck they may not even be bench worthy for some of the deeper teams in the league, but are they without worth? Not entirely. We'll start with Jerry Hariston Jr. he's not an everyday player at this stage of his career, but he can still get on base and play good enough defense at every position to provide a decent amount of value. Josh Wilson is another guy who can play everywhere without providing terrible embarrassment, but unlike Harriston he can't hit a lick. I would expect the Braves to bring back late season acquisition Jack Wilson if they decide to go the route for a good fielder who they don't need to hit, and the latter Wilson is a good enough fielder to even start for a bit if he has to.Edgar Renteria is also available, but he will probably cost more than the nominal value he can provide at this point in his career.

Thinking well outside the box.

 Brandon Wood will be 27 at the start of next season, and the once promising prospect has fallen from grace heavily. In no way should he be considered a starting option, but his versatility(SS,3B, 1B) and career minor league OPS of .888 are enough to merit a minor league deal and a spring training invite.

*Note: Since this blog was originality posted he has signed with the Rockies on a minor league deal.*

  Another interesting name is Bill Hall a once promising SS who hit 35 home runs as the shortstop for the 2006 Brewers before he was displaced in favor of J.J. Hardy,  and gradually faded into obscurity. That is until 2010 when he has a resurgence with the Red Sox, where he put up a .247/.316/.456 line and played himself into a starting job with the Astros that he promptly lost...again. At this point he's not really a shortstop but he could be value off the bench on a minor league deal.

Last but not least, the trade candidates.
Frank Wren also stated in his recent interview that he expects to come up with a short term option via trade, and there are a few decent candidates out there. The Angels have two of them Eric Aybar and Macier Izturis Aybar is an above average fielder and his stolen bases give him the impression of being a much better player than Izturis. While Aybar is a bit better especially with the glove Izturis is enough of on base threat that he actually provides plenty of value and can play a very good 2B and 3B if another SS came along.

Another name that gets thrown around a lot is Stephen Drew, and honestly J.D. Drew has a better shot at playing in Atlanta in 2012. Drew is coming off a largely lost season and is getting paid far too much at 7.75 million in 2012 when no one is entirely sure how much he will be able to play. He's a good player but at the price he's getting paid , the injury risks, plus the high cost in players that Kevin Towers will want in return I can't see this move happening.

Robert Andino is a guy that is surfacing a lot on the blogs and message boards, and I think he could be had after the Orioles extended J.J. Hardy. He's got some speed and a bit of on base ability and can play a decent if uninspired shortstop. I think that a Jair Jurrjens for Andino and Xavier Avery would be a decent deal for the Bravos, but who knows if Frank Wren agrees. I have a feeling he may be aiming much higher.

The guy that I really like is Brendan Ryan of the Mariners, they probably aren't looking to move him as they don't have another internal option at short but he of the high socks is certainly a fit for the Braves. Okay, he's not much of a hitter, has no pop, and the only slightly redeeming part of his offensive game is that he can sort of run. Watch him on the field for a few innings though and you just might not care anymore he consistently ranks among the MLB leaders in UZR and fWAR. He is a true fielder in the Ozzie Smith tradition. This is the guy I want, but we probably can't get.

The other two guys that are a bit intriguing that are not starters are Jed Lowrie for the Red Sox and Eduardo Nunez of the Yankees. Lowrie is the super utility guy for the Sox and has a decent bat with a bit of pop. He's not a super rangy shortstop, but he is solid and can also play a competent 2B and 3B. Nunez is mainly the same story but has a bit more speed and less power.

So the hot stove is blazing and after writing this so is my keyboard, if you have a favorite for the shortstop spot please post it in the comments. I'm looking forward to hearing your opinions.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Breaking down the Rome Braves Part 1

It's been an interesting season for the Rome Braves, tons of potential much of it unrealized. Some of the Braves top position player prospects played in Rome this season , and there were some great surprises among some of the non-prospects. Evan Gattis came out of nowhere to put up an incredible .986 OPS, and top prospect Edward Salcedo took and big steps forward in  his second pro season raising his average to .248 with a .315 OBP. In this post were going to take a look at the infield/catchers on the 2011 R-Braves. To save confusion the players featured will have finished the year with Rome, and played at least 45 games for them.

Edward Salcedo- 3B/SS-R/R 

Salcedo started the season as the shortstop for the Rome team, but was moved to third base after 19 games. It's not that he was terrible at short, but Matt Lipka has proven to be the more likely to stick there long term. He put up a .248/.315/.396 line with 12 home runs and 23 stolen bases. Salcedo has shown improving power and a decent eye at the plate, he needs to work on his pitch recognition but he just turned 20 late in the season so he has some time to work that out. 

The bad news is his defense, he committed over 40 errors between short and third. After seeing him play it's easy to see why, though he has decent hands, reactions and a strong arm he appears to have some sort of mental block about throwing to first base. Probably three quarters of the errors he committed  were on throws, he seems to think too hard and rush causing him to sail the ball often. This isn't an insolvable problem and many young players struggle with errors early, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him move to an outfield corner if it persists.

Projection: A starting third baseman or left fielder who hits around .275/.335/.415. His speed may begin to evaporate as he fills out but he should be able to continue to improve his power and eye.

Matt Lipka-SS R/R
The first pick of the Braves in the 2010 draft, the "Dirt Devil" has good hands and range a short, his arm is a little below average, but he makes up with it by getting in a good throwing position and a quick release. At the plate he has an improving eye and good bat control, but he makes a lot of weak contact. I give him a lot of credit from going to Rome his first full season out of high school, he will probably start to drive the ball more as he adjusts to the pro-game but will never be a power hitter. The best part of Lipka's game is his speed, he is quick and has speed to burn both in the field and on the bases. 

Projection: A good fielding shortstop at the MLB level who could be an everyday player if he can get on base at a decent clip, and provide the speed to be a top of the order hitter. *

* after this post was written it was reported that Lipka is currently learning CF in the instructional league, so though he may be a good fielding SS we may not see him there often in the future.

Matt Weaver-INF/OF-R/R
A very interesting guy, if only because of his extreme utility. Weaver has a good glove, and saw time at every position besides catcher and center field for the R-Braves this season, even pitching in one game. He has good reactions, especially in the infield, and an accurate arm. As an outfielder he gets good reads, but occasionally takes a bad route on balls hit hard. He is quick, but not a base stealer, and has a good contact swing that drives the ball where it is pitched. Has doubles power, but isn't a real home run threat. 
Projection: Could be an MLB utility man because of his competence at nearly every position, with the potential to be more than that if he can hit enough.

Chris Garcia-1B-L/R
A semi-journeyman at 23 he was cut loose by the Angels after two lackluster season in rookie ball. He found his power stroke in the Independent American Association, and was signed by the Braves in the off season. Though he is a little old for low A ball a .305/.405/.511line is impressive for anyone. He has decent hands around the bag at first, but has very little range. 

Projection: He's blocked by Freddie Freeman on the big club, and a few younger guys that project a little better in the Braves system. He has enough of a bat that someone may give him a shot, but it's hard to see him as more than an organizational guy, albeit a talented one.

Tommy LaStella-2B-L/R
One of the most impressive 2011 draftees, he has an easy swing from the left side that generates a good amount of power. He also possesses a pretty good eye at the plate that helped him put up an impressive .328/.401/.543 line in 63 games as the Rome second baseman. In the field he has decent hands a pretty good arm, but isn't the rangiest middle infielder. 

Projection: His bat looks like it could play if he can stick in the infield. Could perhaps make a move to third at some point if he doesn't make it at second.

Jacob Dalfonso-1B-L/R
He's a big imposing presence at the plate, with good power but at this point that is about it. He seldom walks, and has yet to really find a position seeing time at all four corner positions. Not a terrible fielder at first, but not particularly rangy. Runs okay for a big guy, but that's not a key part of his game. Could be a 2012 breakout candidate if he can find a position and avoid the injury bug that kept him out for much of 2011.

Projection: Similar to Garcia, his bat has the potential to be valuable, but the glove may hold him back. If he can find a position and walk a little more he could get some attention. Probably not a prospect at this point, but is young enough to turn a corner.

Evan Gattis-C/1B-R/R
You can't mention the 2011 Rome Braves without Gattis, after splitting time with Christian Bethancourt at the start of the year, he started playing every day behind the plate after Bethancourt's promotion to Lynchburg. A .986  OPS is the stat that keeps jumping off the page on his line, and his approach supports that number pretty well. He has a short quick stroke that leads to a lot of line drives and very little weak contact. He doesn't walk a ton, but doesn't strike out much either; may walk more when he faces for difficult pitching but for most of 2011 low A.

Projection: At 23 he was old for low A but he's got a good bat. If he can improve his reactions behind the plate, could end up being a good hitting backup catcher. May move to first or even left at an attempt to advance his bat, as it is much more advanced than his glove.

Elmer Reyes-2B/SS-R/R
Reyes came into 2011 looking like one of the Braves top middle infield prospects after a very solid 2010 as a member of two rookie teams putting up a .301/.362/.472 line in his first full season. His 2011 was disappointing, after he faltered out of the gate in Rome and was demoted to Danville. He recovered in rookie ball but still struggled mightily enough to cast some doubt on whether or not he is a legitimate infield prospect. He is a slick fielder with quick hands and a decent arm. Has shown some on base ability and can occasionally can surprise with some pop. He runs well, but isn't much of a stolen base threat at this point. At 20 years old he has some time to make adjustments.

Projection: Probably a reserve infielder unless he can really develop at the plate, but there are times when he swings well enough to make you wonder if a breakout is imminent. 

In the next post we will review the Rome outfield. Keep in mind I am not a scout, so don't take the summaries here as gospel it's just my observations. If you have an opinion on any players mentioned please post them in the comments.

Thursday, July 14, 2011

Acquiring Dan Uggla..

When you think of Dan Uggla right now, your mind probably flashes to the Braves second baseman popping up a ball to the right side of the infield and half a season of frustration.

Maybe you think ," Oh damn, we have five more seasons of this?"

But I'm not here to bash Uggla, I think he will come around and will probably end up helping this team. Particularly when he relocates to left field following the 2012 season. More than likely anyway. The question is, how did he come to be on the 2011 Braves roster?

To answer that question you have to start with an unheralded 29th round draft pick named Adam LaRoche. You  may remember LaRoche, he was the Braves starting first baseman from 2004-2006 and again in the second half of 2009.

LaRoche along with career minor league pitcher Jaime Romak were traded to the Pirates for the man who would be closer Mike Gonzalez and Brent Lillibridge. The trade was sort of a wash for the Bravos as the got sporadic excellence out of Gonzalez and very little out of Lillibridge before he was traded to the White Sox. "The Cobra" left Atlanta after the 2009 season as a free agent but he did net the Bravos a compensation pick in Todd Cunningham, who projects to be a solid fourth outfielder type.

Lillibridge along with blocked catching prospect Tyler Flowers netted the Braves their former nemesis Javier Vasquez and lefty Boone Logan. Vasquez was heroic in Atlanta and helped the fans forget about a rotation that often featured Jo-Jo Reyes, Jorge Campillo and Charlie Morton. Logan was decent in his lone season at the Ted but control problems limited his usage.

The pair were packaged to New York after the 2009 season after a rotation surplus forced the Braves to shed a starter, and the attached payroll. In return they received Melky Cabrerra ,who still gives Braves fans nightmares. A 19 year old fireballer named Arodys Vizcaino who gives them hope, and Mike Dunn who with the help of Omar Infante gave us Dan Uggla.

Infante was one of the oddest trades that actually worked pretty well for Braves, he was acquired from the Cubs with Will Ohman for a promising youngster named Jose Ascanio. Ohman was a very good lefty setup man for a season, and Omar became an All-Star while backing up everyone and fighting for a batting title.

So there you have it, I guess what it really boils down to folks is would you trade Adam LaRoche, Jose Ascanio, and Jaime Rumak for Dan Uggla, Arodys Vizcaino, and Todd Cunninham?

Okay it's not nearly that simple, but maybe if a butterfly flaps its wings in Japan, it will cause Dan Uggla to get hot in the second half.