Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Shortstop, a shortstop, my kingdom for a shortstop!

You could just about buy a reasonably sized kingdom for the cash you would expect to pay for the price of the top free agent shortstops this season, and in the opinion of many a feudal era castle might be a safer investment. With a castle all you have to worry about is the decay of ages, moat maintenance and the uprising of the peasants.

Sign Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins and you have to worry about them staying something close to healthy, along with the decay of ages and the uprising of the peasants(and bloggers) when they inevitably get injured.

One look at the free agents and the Braves monetary situation and it will leave you thinking, "there is no way that the Braves will have a shortstop in 2012". And it is true that the lack of great options up the middle has driven up prices so much that Jamey Carroll, a career utility man who will be 38 at the start of next season, to a two year deal worth at least 6.5 million dollars to be their everyday shortstop. It's a sellers market even if the product isn't fantastic. Heck even a 37 year old John McDonald, an all glove career backup with a career OPS of .601 got a two year/3 million deal.

So that begs the question, "Who will play shortstop for the Braves in 2012?"

Well, lets take a look at the options.

In house there is really only one guy, his name is Tyler Pastornicky and in all likelyhood he will be a starting middle infielder in the near future. He preformed very well between AA and AAA in 2011 and will only be 22 at the start of next season. His slash line in 2011 was .314/.359/.414 and stole 27 bases and played SS in a manner that most scouts have described as above average. So what's the problem you say? Frank Wren gave the impression in a recent interview that he didn't think he was ready to start the season as the Braves starting shortstop. Maybe in 2013 he will get a shot, because he's doing all he can to earn one.

So we move on to the free agents and lets face it's not pretty.

As I mentioned above Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are the top of this class, but don't expect the Braves to make a play for either one. The massive amount of money and stupid long contracts these guys will get would drive them out of the Braves radar alone. Throw in the fact that you need a MASH unit to keep up with all of their injuries and you have two very talented guys that will likely never play in Atlanta.

So moving on, the next group is really about a tier or two below the aforementioned but they still have value. That class is headlined by Yuniesky Betancourt, Raphael Furcal, Clint Barmes, Alex Gonzalez and Ronnie Cedeno. Are you bored yet? You should be. The Braves will not even extend and offer to Betancourt if they have done their homework, and after the debacle with Furcal a few years back, coupled with the fact that he is reported to be asking for two years and 16 million you can forget about him too.

 The other three guys, aren't atrocious options in a way, we know what were getting in Gonzalez a great glove and little else. However if he's willing to come back on a one year deal worth less than 4 million, it's easy to envision him manning short and hitting far too high in the batting order for the Braves for one more year. In a world where Jamey Carroll get's two years, there may be a team willing to give Sea Bass a two year deal, in which case you can kiss him good bye Braves fans. Barmes is a pretty good option with a glove comparable to Gonzalez. You get a bit more with the bat, but with the market being a bit high for middle infielders this year he may have priced himself out of Atlanta's range. That is to say they could pay him what he want's, but in the interest of sticking to their long term plan they probably wont. Cedeno is an interesting option, okay not interesting but not the worst either. He's a competent infielder at  SS, 2B, and 3B and is basically an equal to Gonzalez with the bat with a better OBP but no power to speak of. The deal with Cedeno is, if you sign him to a two year deal for 3.5 million or less he can also be a decent backup at several positions if Pastornicky proves that he is ready at some point in the next two years. Are they good options, no, but they might be the best available.

The other guys; The best and brightest of the bottom of the barrel.

These guys are the left overs, the ones that shouldn't be everyday players for a team that hopes to content. Heck they may not even be bench worthy for some of the deeper teams in the league, but are they without worth? Not entirely. We'll start with Jerry Hariston Jr. he's not an everyday player at this stage of his career, but he can still get on base and play good enough defense at every position to provide a decent amount of value. Josh Wilson is another guy who can play everywhere without providing terrible embarrassment, but unlike Harriston he can't hit a lick. I would expect the Braves to bring back late season acquisition Jack Wilson if they decide to go the route for a good fielder who they don't need to hit, and the latter Wilson is a good enough fielder to even start for a bit if he has to.Edgar Renteria is also available, but he will probably cost more than the nominal value he can provide at this point in his career.

Thinking well outside the box.

 Brandon Wood will be 27 at the start of next season, and the once promising prospect has fallen from grace heavily. In no way should he be considered a starting option, but his versatility(SS,3B, 1B) and career minor league OPS of .888 are enough to merit a minor league deal and a spring training invite.

*Note: Since this blog was originality posted he has signed with the Rockies on a minor league deal.*

  Another interesting name is Bill Hall a once promising SS who hit 35 home runs as the shortstop for the 2006 Brewers before he was displaced in favor of J.J. Hardy,  and gradually faded into obscurity. That is until 2010 when he has a resurgence with the Red Sox, where he put up a .247/.316/.456 line and played himself into a starting job with the Astros that he promptly lost...again. At this point he's not really a shortstop but he could be value off the bench on a minor league deal.

Last but not least, the trade candidates.
Frank Wren also stated in his recent interview that he expects to come up with a short term option via trade, and there are a few decent candidates out there. The Angels have two of them Eric Aybar and Macier Izturis Aybar is an above average fielder and his stolen bases give him the impression of being a much better player than Izturis. While Aybar is a bit better especially with the glove Izturis is enough of on base threat that he actually provides plenty of value and can play a very good 2B and 3B if another SS came along.

Another name that gets thrown around a lot is Stephen Drew, and honestly J.D. Drew has a better shot at playing in Atlanta in 2012. Drew is coming off a largely lost season and is getting paid far too much at 7.75 million in 2012 when no one is entirely sure how much he will be able to play. He's a good player but at the price he's getting paid , the injury risks, plus the high cost in players that Kevin Towers will want in return I can't see this move happening.

Robert Andino is a guy that is surfacing a lot on the blogs and message boards, and I think he could be had after the Orioles extended J.J. Hardy. He's got some speed and a bit of on base ability and can play a decent if uninspired shortstop. I think that a Jair Jurrjens for Andino and Xavier Avery would be a decent deal for the Bravos, but who knows if Frank Wren agrees. I have a feeling he may be aiming much higher.

The guy that I really like is Brendan Ryan of the Mariners, they probably aren't looking to move him as they don't have another internal option at short but he of the high socks is certainly a fit for the Braves. Okay, he's not much of a hitter, has no pop, and the only slightly redeeming part of his offensive game is that he can sort of run. Watch him on the field for a few innings though and you just might not care anymore he consistently ranks among the MLB leaders in UZR and fWAR. He is a true fielder in the Ozzie Smith tradition. This is the guy I want, but we probably can't get.

The other two guys that are a bit intriguing that are not starters are Jed Lowrie for the Red Sox and Eduardo Nunez of the Yankees. Lowrie is the super utility guy for the Sox and has a decent bat with a bit of pop. He's not a super rangy shortstop, but he is solid and can also play a competent 2B and 3B. Nunez is mainly the same story but has a bit more speed and less power.

So the hot stove is blazing and after writing this so is my keyboard, if you have a favorite for the shortstop spot please post it in the comments. I'm looking forward to hearing your opinions.

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