Sunday, January 22, 2012

2012 Braves and your Fantasy Draft

With fantasy baseball draft season coming up right around the corner your probably bouncing ideas around in your head like, "should I draft a pitcher in the first round?" or " should I draft Manny Ramirez if he has a real chance at a starting spot?"

The answer to both of those questions is a resounding NO and if you do you will regret it.

Another thing you might be thinking is how can you get players from your favorite team on your fictional team. Let's face it, its always fun to be rooting double for a guy as it were. And when your ace is going against your favorite team you don't have to hope he pitches good, but not good enough to win. Now it's never advisable to draft a player just because you like him or the team he plays for, that will spell doom for your fake team and you will lose out on better players to get familiar faces.

It is possible to get some players from the team you root for though, you just have to know how they fit;
this is how the 2012 Braves can fit into your fantasy strategy.

To start off we have Brain McCann, as a top 5 offensive catcher for the past 5 years he is a prime target for fantasy owners. This is no mistake and your not going to embarrass yourself too badly even if your reach a bit for him. He's a safe pick in the second to fourth round in any league and in deep and NL only leagues you might even see him in the back half of round one. He helps you in OPB, SLG, HR, RBI and can be very good in AVG if he stays healthy and  coming out of the catchers spot where the likes of Ramon Hernandez and Kurt Suzuki are often starters he's an elite commodity.

The man, the legend Chipper Jones. What can you say? For years he was a surefire first round pick, and even in his mid thirties he has remained a solid starting third baseman for fantasy owners. He's older and a little more injury prone than even now but even still he can help your team. In most leagues he's probably a backup or platoon player now if your roster is big enough to accommodate.  The reality is NL only leagues are where he has the most value and is still a starter, or if your league has at least 14 teams. Draft him by all means if he's available late, he still does very well in OBP, AVG and HR's are good for third still, but in most leagues someone is going to reach and take him in the sixth round when he shouldn't be taken above the tenth in the majority of leagues at this point.

Freddie Freeman is a conundrum, he's a good young hitter coming off a good rookie year, but in most leagues he just not a starting first baseman. He's good enough to make your team though, if you have a spare INF spot or a UT that you can put an extra hitter at he's a great guy to plug in. Beware though he is still a young player and prone to a step back before he takes another step forward, and he will never have Price Fielder power. I'd take him in the 9-12 round of your average 22 or so man roster in a 12 team league, in some leagues you might get someone reaching because of the surplus of good hitting first basemen you might steal him in a late round when he gets overlooked in favor of a true slugger like Mark Reynolds.

A guy that should be fun to watch is Jason Heyward. More talent than any other player on the team, but has yet to put it all together. His rookie campaign was tremendous, last year not so much. I expect a rebound, but the key is reach a little, but not too much. He has the potential of a top 30 player, but right now is only in the top 100 optimistically. A round 8 flyer on him isn't a wasted pick but the smart fantasy player is going to make him your third outfielder or a fourth outfielder unless your in a deeper league.  By all means start him everyday if he gets hot, but don't build your strategy around Heyward putting up all star numbers.

Dan Uggla is another of the Safer bets in the Braves lineup, if you draft him you need a Joe Mauer or Jose Reyes to offset his average, but it also mean you can draft a lighter hitting corner infielder or outfielder. Because he hit bombs. It's what he does, it's what he's known for and it's what you will draft him for. Rounds 5-8 are the perfect place to take Uggla and as long as his first half isn't as dismal he wont be too disappointing.

Another conundrum is Tyler Pastornicky, the Braves probable shortstop in 2012. He should hit enough to stay in the lineup and coming from the shortstop position that is a sort of rare thing. He's not a great flashy player, but let's be honest if he puts up a .265/.320/.400 line he's a starter in most fantasy leagues. Tyler has very little power, but can run a little and 20 stolen bases is not a stretch for him. He's the perfect candidate for the round 14 "oh crap, I don't have a shortstop!" moment and on the offensive side of the ball is very comparable to a Cliff Pennington or on the optimistic side Erik Aybar.

Martin Prado used to be highly sought after because of  his versatility, in 2010 he qualified at third , second and first bases while providing above average offence at second and third base. He probably just qualifies at third and in the outfield this year, and still has value though he isn't the ideal utility option he once was. A good bounce back candidate if he stays healthy and isn't forced to change his game "for the good of the team". Regardless of where he ends up playing his production is still pretty good for third base and he could be a very good option for your deeper league teams or as a backup on any team.

The starting pitchers are all pretty good but offer different things. Husdson is pretty consistent with wins, ERA,  and WHIP and wont kill you in any category. Hanson and Beachy have some injury questions but ill really help you in the strikeout department. Jurrjens is a regression candidate but has been able to keep a respectable ERA over the course of his career and is always good for a few wins at the back of your fantasy rotation. Not to be overlooked are Mike Minor and Julio Tehran keep an eye on who wins the number five job in this spring and see if you can draft either one late, the smart money is on Minor but it's anyone's game and they both put up respectable number across the board with more strikeouts than you average number five.

All of these guys are pretty good bets from round six to the end of the draft in a standard twelve team mixed league.  In terms of fantasy value they probably should be listed Hanson, Hudson, Breachy, Theran/Minor and Jurrjens last. JJ will be drafted long before then  because of his gaudy ERA last year, but his strikeouts and injuries make him less valuable to you than he is to the Braves.

The bullpen has four guys you might could use more if inures occur, Kimbrell will go early because of his insane strikeout numbers. He and Carlos Marmol are in a class of their own when it come to K's from the pen with Kenly Jansen bucking to join them he should be among the first closers drafted, and rightly so they usually start going around round five. Draft him then but don't reach too much because you could get a Kenly Jansen or Jason Motte type near the end of your draft for similar production in most categories.

Johnny Venters is another guy that is good to have, but less so if you don't count holds in your league. He still puts up fantastic production in WHIP, K's and ERA but unless your counting holds or he starts getting saves don't be the idiot that drafts a setup man in the 9th round.

Eric O'Flaherty and Kris Medlin also have value in deeper leagues, O'Flaherty may even get more selections than a seventh inning guy should because of how gaudy his numbers were last season. Of the new I really prefer Medlin, he can go multiple innings, strikes out a lot of batters and isn't restricted by handedness. Medlin is also a candidate to spot start which can add value if he does well in even a few starts.

Arodis Vizcaino could also benift your team in deeper and NL only leagues because he could be a guy to strikeout batters on a similar scale to Kimbrell. I'd leave him off my draft board if you draft before spring training though as he may be relegated to Gwinett for at least part of next season. Randell Delgado is in a similar boat but probably wont see a ton of starts unless someone goes down with an injury.

That about does it for the Braves and your fantasy draft and it's pretty good news as all of their starting players have some value and they don't have a very weak spot anywhere in the pitching staff. If you have a different strategy please feel free to leave it in the comments.

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