Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Eric O'Flaherty The Big Question No One is Asking

Eric O'Flaherty had a fantastic season in 2011.

He had an ERA of .98 in 73.2 innings pitched.
His struck out an average of 8.2 batters per 9 innings while only walking an average of 2.6.
Eric was the ideal 7th inning force and lefty specialist against the best hitters in the National League.

And he should be traded immediately.

As good as Eric was in 2011 it would be irresponsible to assume that he will maintain that level of success. He's a very good pitcher, don't get me wrong but he will not have an ERA under 1 in 2012 if he pitches more than a handful of innings. He will probably be better than his career averages so far, not that it's that impressive; 3.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 57 innings pitched shouldn't be too hard for him to exceed.

But here's the problem, and it's a big one; The Braves are paying him nearly 2.5 million dollars next season, and he's the third man in the pen. On a team with a 120 million dollar payroll that's fine, on the Braves it's a fantastic luxury but one that could draw funds away from areas of greater need. In a recent interview Braves CEO Terry McGuirk told a reporter that the Braves had around 4 million to spend, add in O'Flaherty's 2.5 million and the Braves could have had the money to trade for a more talented outfielder or a beneficial free agent signing.

Granted the only valuable players that could have possibly be imaged a fit for the Braves that signed for under 6.5 million are in the class of Cody Ross, Luke Scott and Ryan Doumit but Frank Wren could have possibly turned that money into a more valuable player than even the best seventh inning man. It's possible that some contending team in need of a setup man might have valued Eric even more than the Braves and he could of possibly be moved for a valuable prospect. If the Red Sox traded Jed Lowrie for Mark Melancon, and one year ago Frank Francisco was traded for Mike Napoli, maybe the Braves could have gotten a legit piece for the talented lefty.

It's not that it's a bad thing to have a pitcher of that caliber on your team, it's just that in the Braves monetary situation could they do any better with that money.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

2012 Braves and your Fantasy Draft

With fantasy baseball draft season coming up right around the corner your probably bouncing ideas around in your head like, "should I draft a pitcher in the first round?" or " should I draft Manny Ramirez if he has a real chance at a starting spot?"

The answer to both of those questions is a resounding NO and if you do you will regret it.

Another thing you might be thinking is how can you get players from your favorite team on your fictional team. Let's face it, its always fun to be rooting double for a guy as it were. And when your ace is going against your favorite team you don't have to hope he pitches good, but not good enough to win. Now it's never advisable to draft a player just because you like him or the team he plays for, that will spell doom for your fake team and you will lose out on better players to get familiar faces.

It is possible to get some players from the team you root for though, you just have to know how they fit;
this is how the 2012 Braves can fit into your fantasy strategy.

To start off we have Brain McCann, as a top 5 offensive catcher for the past 5 years he is a prime target for fantasy owners. This is no mistake and your not going to embarrass yourself too badly even if your reach a bit for him. He's a safe pick in the second to fourth round in any league and in deep and NL only leagues you might even see him in the back half of round one. He helps you in OPB, SLG, HR, RBI and can be very good in AVG if he stays healthy and  coming out of the catchers spot where the likes of Ramon Hernandez and Kurt Suzuki are often starters he's an elite commodity.

The man, the legend Chipper Jones. What can you say? For years he was a surefire first round pick, and even in his mid thirties he has remained a solid starting third baseman for fantasy owners. He's older and a little more injury prone than even now but even still he can help your team. In most leagues he's probably a backup or platoon player now if your roster is big enough to accommodate.  The reality is NL only leagues are where he has the most value and is still a starter, or if your league has at least 14 teams. Draft him by all means if he's available late, he still does very well in OBP, AVG and HR's are good for third still, but in most leagues someone is going to reach and take him in the sixth round when he shouldn't be taken above the tenth in the majority of leagues at this point.

Freddie Freeman is a conundrum, he's a good young hitter coming off a good rookie year, but in most leagues he just not a starting first baseman. He's good enough to make your team though, if you have a spare INF spot or a UT that you can put an extra hitter at he's a great guy to plug in. Beware though he is still a young player and prone to a step back before he takes another step forward, and he will never have Price Fielder power. I'd take him in the 9-12 round of your average 22 or so man roster in a 12 team league, in some leagues you might get someone reaching because of the surplus of good hitting first basemen you might steal him in a late round when he gets overlooked in favor of a true slugger like Mark Reynolds.

A guy that should be fun to watch is Jason Heyward. More talent than any other player on the team, but has yet to put it all together. His rookie campaign was tremendous, last year not so much. I expect a rebound, but the key is reach a little, but not too much. He has the potential of a top 30 player, but right now is only in the top 100 optimistically. A round 8 flyer on him isn't a wasted pick but the smart fantasy player is going to make him your third outfielder or a fourth outfielder unless your in a deeper league.  By all means start him everyday if he gets hot, but don't build your strategy around Heyward putting up all star numbers.

Dan Uggla is another of the Safer bets in the Braves lineup, if you draft him you need a Joe Mauer or Jose Reyes to offset his average, but it also mean you can draft a lighter hitting corner infielder or outfielder. Because he hit bombs. It's what he does, it's what he's known for and it's what you will draft him for. Rounds 5-8 are the perfect place to take Uggla and as long as his first half isn't as dismal he wont be too disappointing.

Another conundrum is Tyler Pastornicky, the Braves probable shortstop in 2012. He should hit enough to stay in the lineup and coming from the shortstop position that is a sort of rare thing. He's not a great flashy player, but let's be honest if he puts up a .265/.320/.400 line he's a starter in most fantasy leagues. Tyler has very little power, but can run a little and 20 stolen bases is not a stretch for him. He's the perfect candidate for the round 14 "oh crap, I don't have a shortstop!" moment and on the offensive side of the ball is very comparable to a Cliff Pennington or on the optimistic side Erik Aybar.

Martin Prado used to be highly sought after because of  his versatility, in 2010 he qualified at third , second and first bases while providing above average offence at second and third base. He probably just qualifies at third and in the outfield this year, and still has value though he isn't the ideal utility option he once was. A good bounce back candidate if he stays healthy and isn't forced to change his game "for the good of the team". Regardless of where he ends up playing his production is still pretty good for third base and he could be a very good option for your deeper league teams or as a backup on any team.

The starting pitchers are all pretty good but offer different things. Husdson is pretty consistent with wins, ERA,  and WHIP and wont kill you in any category. Hanson and Beachy have some injury questions but ill really help you in the strikeout department. Jurrjens is a regression candidate but has been able to keep a respectable ERA over the course of his career and is always good for a few wins at the back of your fantasy rotation. Not to be overlooked are Mike Minor and Julio Tehran keep an eye on who wins the number five job in this spring and see if you can draft either one late, the smart money is on Minor but it's anyone's game and they both put up respectable number across the board with more strikeouts than you average number five.

All of these guys are pretty good bets from round six to the end of the draft in a standard twelve team mixed league.  In terms of fantasy value they probably should be listed Hanson, Hudson, Breachy, Theran/Minor and Jurrjens last. JJ will be drafted long before then  because of his gaudy ERA last year, but his strikeouts and injuries make him less valuable to you than he is to the Braves.

The bullpen has four guys you might could use more if inures occur, Kimbrell will go early because of his insane strikeout numbers. He and Carlos Marmol are in a class of their own when it come to K's from the pen with Kenly Jansen bucking to join them he should be among the first closers drafted, and rightly so they usually start going around round five. Draft him then but don't reach too much because you could get a Kenly Jansen or Jason Motte type near the end of your draft for similar production in most categories.

Johnny Venters is another guy that is good to have, but less so if you don't count holds in your league. He still puts up fantastic production in WHIP, K's and ERA but unless your counting holds or he starts getting saves don't be the idiot that drafts a setup man in the 9th round.

Eric O'Flaherty and Kris Medlin also have value in deeper leagues, O'Flaherty may even get more selections than a seventh inning guy should because of how gaudy his numbers were last season. Of the new I really prefer Medlin, he can go multiple innings, strikes out a lot of batters and isn't restricted by handedness. Medlin is also a candidate to spot start which can add value if he does well in even a few starts.

Arodis Vizcaino could also benift your team in deeper and NL only leagues because he could be a guy to strikeout batters on a similar scale to Kimbrell. I'd leave him off my draft board if you draft before spring training though as he may be relegated to Gwinett for at least part of next season. Randell Delgado is in a similar boat but probably wont see a ton of starts unless someone goes down with an injury.

That about does it for the Braves and your fantasy draft and it's pretty good news as all of their starting players have some value and they don't have a very weak spot anywhere in the pitching staff. If you have a different strategy please feel free to leave it in the comments.

Monday, January 9, 2012

Digging a little in the Braves prospect mine.

There is that guy every year, the unheralded prospect who comes up big in a tight spot for the big club. For the Braves in recent years guys like Johnny Venters, Kris Medlin and Brandon Beachy have come out of nowhere to contribute in a big way. A couple months before their call up you might not even have heard there names. The Braves minor league teams are full of potential MLB quality players; you know about Tehran, Delgado, Pastornicky, and Bethancourt. Most of you know about Terdoslavich, Salcedo, and Hoover. So who are the coming out of nowhere candidates for 2012?

Lets take a look.

First up is Navery Moore, he's a 6"2 215 lb. 21 year old out of Vanderbilt. He was selected in the 14th round of the 2011 draft, by all accounts low for a player of his quality and the thing you need to know about him is this; he throws hard. Topping out in the mid 90's with good command and a breaking pitch with plus potential. He was the Commodores closer this past season and will join former teammate Mark Lamm in the Braves minor League system in 2012. He hasn't played a pro game yet and will likely debut at Rome or Danville, and projecting him to debut in the MLB before 2014 is downright optimistic.  That's part of the reason he make this list, he has some real potential and has begun to tap into it and though he only has the longest shot to contribute in 2012 he is a near lock to be a contributing member of the Braves pen at some point.

Speaking of Lamm, Moore's setup man at Vandy, he also has a shot to contribute at some point. He pitched 27.2 pro innings last season, primarily at Lynchburg and threw well striking out 23 and walking 12 while posting a 2.98 ERA. He's a big guy at 6"4 215 lb. and throws in the low to mid 90's, but his command and polish could help him move quickly. The fact that he immediately became a key member of the Hillcats pen after being drafted speaks well of his ability to adjust to a challenge.

Ernesto Mejia is a guy that isn't pegged to do much to affect his MLB candidacy, and rightfully so he's 26 and has been on a minor league roster since 2005 without ever being in danger of running into the fast lane to the MLB. He's a monster of a man at 6"5 245 and the dude can rake, at AA Mississippi in 2011 he posted a .906 OPS and hit 26 dingers. He reminds me a little bit of former Braves farmhand Kala Ka'aihue, in that he's a big guy with power and a little patience who might have some value if he were mobile enough to play anywhere but 1B. He was tried in the OF in Rookie league, but the Braves quickly thought better of it. He might get a shot as a DH during inter-league play or as an emergency call up if Hinske or Freeman(or both) are down due to injury.

One more guy that could make a surprise impact is Mycal Jones, Jones is a little different in that he has been on the mouths of Braves fans for three or four years now, but in the right circumstances 2012 could be his big chance. Either was it will be a make or break year for the versatile Jones, he has some pop, speed, patience at the plate and is an above average defender in CF and 2B. Originally a shortstop Jones was moved to second and later center field because he had some issues with mental errors and with the addition of Tyler Pastornicky and Matt Lipka(now also a CF) he was no longer as high on the SS depth cart has he had been. He has a chance to come up big due to his versatility and combination of speed and patience if he can put the total package together a little more in 2012.

Those are just a few of the long shot guys that could contribute to the big club at some point, and even if they don't in 2012 I feel sure that you will continue to hear about them in the future.

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Carlos Quentin and Your Atlanta Braves

Yesterday Carlos Quentin was traded to the San Diego Padres for two promising, if uninspiring pitching prospects. His name has been one associated with the Braves trade rumor scene. For good reason also; the Braves and White Sox have hooked up on numerous trades and there seemed to be a decent fit. Maybe Jair Jurrjens for Quentin and cash or a decent minor leaguer? If the Sox were close to contending I can see it, but two years of pitcher who is rapidly becoming expensive and unlikely to sign a long term deal. But in their current rebuilding mode it's not likely.

Honestly it probably wouldn't have taken Jurrjens to get him. Based on the return J.J. Hoover and Carlos Perez could have been all that it took. The trade cost isn't the problem really, no it's that beside the fact that Quentin is a seemingly ideal right handed power threat there isn't a way to justify him on the 2012 Braves. They already have below average defenders at third base as Chipper ages, second base with Uggla, and depending on how you rate defenders rookie Tyler Pastornicky and Brian McCann also. But watching Quentin play the outfield harks of a late career Garett Anderson, or a three legged turtle. UZR consistently rates him near the bottom of the league usually in the -20 range. On top of that he is due an estated 7.5 million in his final year of arbitration. Add to that the fact that the idea of him playing 150 games in a season is positively laughable as injuries have sidelined him in every season since his 2008 breakout campaign.

Add all of that together and you have a player the Braves just don't need. Not that they could afford his salary anyway, the would probably have to trade Jurrjens or Martin Prado just to free up the money to pay his arbitration salary. I think two of the Braves second or third tier pitching prospects can help acquire a little more than one rather expensive year of Carlos Quentin. I wish him the best of luck with the Friars and even more luck for their fans as they watch him allow hundreds of extra base hits in the spacious Petco outfield.


Sorry about the lack of stats and possible errors in typography as I authored this post from my iPod.